Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.472159 24.618187 29.176678 34.532743 40.624733 47.309428 55.169443
2025-09-14 13.939972 19.231816 25.654941 33.902153 44.079676 56.095122 71.209704
2025-09-21 10.816520 16.640814 24.270307 34.727947 48.398406 65.361202 87.668771
2025-09-28 7.912636 13.551696 21.499304 33.070737 48.995886 69.628906 97.804056
2025-10-05 6.636586 12.422650 21.075030 34.282287 53.184946 78.475403 113.971656
2025-10-12 5.566542 11.354719 20.509565 35.105171 56.743881 86.527418 129.338712
2025-10-19 4.683713 10.391744 19.918317 35.735899 59.953150 94.145215 144.342587
2025-10-26 4.022451 9.667359 19.572618 36.637594 63.525439 102.346556 160.394288
2025-11-02 3.270013 8.599384 18.482269 36.198903 64.972468 107.494157 172.285568
2025-11-09 2.744969 7.859337 17.840498 36.386237 67.325515 113.985908 186.250852
2025-11-16 2.250816 7.060437 16.964047 36.054685 68.775913 119.130694 198.377766
2025-11-23 1.771218 6.159937 15.747698 34.975051 68.885529 122.180772 207.454457
2025-11-30 1.505272 5.744316 15.498745 35.734450 72.291983 130.761911 225.598372
2025-12-07 1.170179 5.034708 14.527565 35.056241 73.233545 135.579120 238.338836
2025-12-14 0.995429 4.723007 14.366266 35.901675 76.843891 144.759460 258.047037
2025-12-21 0.717441 3.957411 13.012351 34.200655 75.769677 146.262094 265.828065
2025-12-28 0.627263 3.800686 13.093261 35.444167 80.100140 156.789493 288.105891
2026-01-04 0.533961 3.589025 12.995841 36.288621 83.718906 166.242905 308.933942
2026-01-11 0.448213 3.363974 12.820371 36.935805 86.983436 175.196001 329.195340
2026-01-18 0.383662 3.198189 12.775467 37.860914 90.816361 185.234863 351.474250
2026-01-25 0.295634 2.856596 12.159760 37.410848 91.923376 190.586720 366.220402
2026-02-01 0.237888 2.630573 11.836979 37.603044 94.294045 198.201308 384.875432
2026-02-08 0.181976 2.362003 11.319663 37.262884 95.551256 203.866814 400.409271